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Which airline will go bust first - and why?

 
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Which domestic airline will go bust first?
Air Deccan
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
Go Air
78%
 78%  [ 11 ]
Indian
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Indigo
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Jet Airways
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
Kingfisher
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Paramount
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
SpiceJet
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 14

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Nimish
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Joined: 16 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2007 5:30 pm    Post subject: Which airline will go bust first - and why? Reply with quote

Which of these airlines do you think will disappear first - and why?

"Disappear" defined as the current brand name being removed from the market - either through an acquisition or just going bust.
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Nimish
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Location: Bangalore, India

PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2007 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Goes without saying that Sahara's already almost gone - hence not listed.

I would rate DN as being the next to go (though Indian may also disappear as a brand once the merger is done) - basically due to the financial issues they're facing. They're a prime target for an acquisition, and if Mallya were to buy them, the first thing he would probably do would be to reduce some capacity (returning leased a/c?) and bring up the fare levels on the trunk routes he would like to make the most money on.
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stealthpilot
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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2007 7:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tough call Nimish, tough call

Indian will go eventually, but that is a while away so I think another carrier will be 1st.
Go would be my choice.
Air Deccan is having trouble, we all read that article where Morgan Stanley basically revealed they have no money but I think they will find an investor.
Just my 2 cents
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Last edited by stealthpilot on Thu May 24, 2007 10:16 am; edited 1 time in total
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HAWK21M
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Posts: 8132
Location: Mumbai, INDIA

PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2007 8:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I feel it will be GoAir.As soon as they see profits drop they will sell.Next would be AD.
regds
MEL
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karatecatman
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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who might crashland:

Go Air is first. Man hasn't a clue as to how to run this airline in a "brandless" LCC market. Right now there is nothing to distinguish one LCC from the other. Just one lakh and two lakh free tickets.
Appointing Preity Zinta as Go's brand ambassador is absurd. Nothing significant to offer though cabin service is high becuase of Maureen Wadia's inputs. Is having financial problems and is subject to discreet intelligence bureau checks

Deccan will be swallowed up. Just a matter of time for Gopi to bale out after he gets the right mix of institutional investers. Other clues are the way everything is being outsourced. Latest is Frankfinn alone will provide the cabin crew on a year's contract, with Deccan eventually phasing out its own crew. State Bank of India may initiate action to attach Deccan property which may include some of the fleet unless Gopi does not pay back the hefty loan soon.

Indigo (surprise, surprise) is reported to be having "problems". People to still get over that 100 A320 order. Has the Jet Airways problem of ego clashes in the management.

***


Paramount is playing it very well. In fact the Paramount chief Thiagrajan is interested in aquiring stakes in other airlines. Has also made it clear that its "no" to both Airbus and Boeing. Intends to expand but with small aircraft.

Spicejet will be an airline to watch for and is strong as Tata and Sons will be stepping up its share in stages. Ratan Tata has even said he may use Spice as the Tata route to get into aviation. Is probably the best LCC.


Another entrant to watch out for will be the new LCC being started by Air India/Indian. The management intends to have a new model for this and even link it to the network/frequent flyer programme/airline alliance of the parent airline Air India. Even a sort of redemption of air miles. Will also carry forward the AIX snack box idea instead of normal LCC eat-the-Marie-biscuts and-get-a-water-bottle-or-starve concept.
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HAWK21M
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Location: Mumbai, INDIA

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

karatecatman wrote:
Who might crashland:


Indigo (surprise, surprise) is reported to be having "problems". People to still get over that 100 A320 order. Has the Jet Airways problem of ego clashes in the management.


Can you elaborate.
regds
MEL
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G-BYGB
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PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2007 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My safest bet is on DN.Despite the brave face put by Capt Gopinath,there is a talk of definite takeover by KF,behind closed doors.

I think Go air can survive for another four years.
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HAWK21M
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PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2007 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G-BYGB wrote:
My safest bet is on DN.Despite the brave face put by Capt Gopinath,there is a talk of definite takeover by KF,behind closed doors.

I think Go air can survive for another four years.


GoAir might sell when they can get a better rate than later.
regds
MEL
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VABBy
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PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2007 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what kind of problems is indigo facing ?? Just wondering when are they bringing in more aircrafts any idea???
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G-BYGB
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Joined: 21 Dec 2006
Posts: 1813
Location: Bangalore/Delhi

PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2007 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HAWK21M wrote:
G-BYGB wrote:
My safest bet is on DN.Despite the brave face put by Capt Gopinath,there is a talk of definite takeover by KF,behind closed doors.

I think Go air can survive for another four years.


GoAir might sell when they can get a better rate than later.
regds
MEL


But whos gonna buy Go air?Any guess?Coz at the moment KF is eyeing on DN,9W has already bought S2,IA and AI have merged .I'am sure KF and 9W won't buy it bcoz it'll b too much for them to handle.
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HAWK21M
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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2007 12:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

VABBy wrote:
what kind of problems is indigo facing ?? Just wondering when are they bringing in more aircrafts any idea???

Why do you feel INDIGO has problems.

About GoAir.Remember they operate A320s.Flt ops & Mx personnell will be absorbed eaisly by the procurer.Slots availability too.
regds
MEL
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shivendrashukla
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Joined: 21 Dec 2006
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Location: Mumbai, India

PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2007 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Go Air.

WHY?

Because they are already in cost cutting mode. They are down to 3 aircraft(Am i correct?) from about 7 till about few months ago. They are in the news for all the wrong reasons lately(Along with DN). This Shows management in poor light. I guess these are my reasons for they doom.

Cheers
Shivendra
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