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VS to cancel BOM LHR from 01FEB15
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airbus340
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 11:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ameya wrote:
Thanks!
Few points
airbus340 wrote:


The feed comes from the US instead of the East .

VS will be a British carrier flying Americans from all over the US via DL's hubs to LHR and back .


I am a novice here, but is there as much stand alone demand for LHR? I have no clue whatsoever, if there indeed is, this could well work out well.


airbus340 wrote:

So technically VS don't need ANY feed from the UK i.e. MAN , EDI , ABZ or the rest of the world . Hence the end of their Little Red UK Domestic Service .


I have to disagree, the real reason for discontinuation of litte red is not being able to fill up those planes, feed or no feed!

airbus340 wrote:

DEL , JNB , HKG were all British Colonies and have deep ties traditionally and massive O & D .

This is true, however, traditionally BOM has had better yields to LHR than DEL, unless the situation was reverse for VS since it has been in DEL longer than BOM


DL had a huge gap in their network as they have very limited services to LHR and yes there is enough demand to LHR from the US . Especially when you have hundreds of DL jets feeding into the few daily flights to LHR from every small town in the US .

Also DL frequent fliers love VS as the service on board is like chalk and cheese between the two . And VS / DL honour equal miles and status to their respective frequent fliers when they travel either airline .

You need to look at VS like a US carrier instead of a UK carrier . Just like AA or UA fills up their LHR flights with traffic from all over the US , DL does the same for VS now .

Little Red was put in place to feed into Long Haul VS flights and the Point to Point traffic was to be an add on . VS won the slots off BA because they convinced the authorities in the EU that BA wont feed into VS and also have a monopoly on these routes to Scotland .

The MAN slots were owned by VS and hence we will see more VS / DL services to the US announced shortly using those .

Yes the feed into their Long Haul Network was very limited and the Point to Point traffic avoided VS Little Red as they had limited frequency .

Moreover when they get feed from the US , the significance of Little Red diminishes . Compare a bunch of Little Red flights to the whole DL network feeding into VS EX USA .

As far as the BOM Vs DEL yields debate is concerned , clearly VS has been in DEL longer and can make it work . So maybe it depends airline to airline and we cant generalize here .
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jasepl
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All those defensive justifications do make very good sense. And if I were asked, I would likely come up with some very similar explanations.

That said, when we look back at the last couple of years of the (admittedly entertaining) Red Hot commentary, there is only one reaction : HahahAHHAHAHAhAHahHAahahaHaahaAAhahahaha!
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Jaysit
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

airbus340 wrote:
Jaysit wrote:
If they can't make the Indian financial capital work - twice - they're utterly useless.


Oh really . If only flying to BOM was the benchmark for any airline flying into India , what would you say to all these airlines below which DONT fly to BOM and have services to DEL .

JAL : Daily on a 777-200
Aeroflot : Daily with a mix of A332/333
Austrian : Daily on a 767
Asiana : Thrice a week on a A333
China Airlines : to Rome and Taipei on an A330
Finnair : Thrice a week on an A330

There are also the below Central Asian Carriers :

Kam Air to Kabul
Kyrgyzstan Air Company to Bishkek
Safi Airways
Turkmenistan Airways
Tashi Airways
Air Asthana


Apples and oranges. No comparison.

We're talking about traffic from the financial capital of Europe to the financial capital of India here, not a once weekly from Bishkek to Delhi.

If VS can't make BOM work (twice), then they're utterly useless. Which is tragic because the soft and hard product is very good. It just hasn't been marketed particularly well.
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avbuff
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mods, can you please have a function to embed excel sheets so that I can share more data.

Below is DEL LHR performance. parameters are Origin Delhi and Destination London. YTD is Year To Date MS% and MAT is last 12 months MS%. Below is the extract.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pos:WORLDWIDE
Origin:DELHI
Destination:LONDON
Document Type:TOTAL
Time:OCT2014

------------------------ YTD.BKG MS % MAT.BKG MS %
TOTAL AIRLINE 100% 100%
----BRITISH AIRWAYS PLC - BA 19% 19%
--- EMIRATES - EK 8% 7%
--- ETIHAD AIRWAYS - EY 2% 1%
--- GULF AIR COMPANY G.S.C - GF 1% 2%
--- JET AIRWAYS INDIA - 9W 17% 17%
----KUWAIT AIRWAYS CORP. - KU 0% 0%
----NACIL D/B/A AIR INDIA - AI 27% 27%
----OMAN AIR (SAOC) - WY 1% 1%
----QATAR AIRWAYS - QR 4% 4%
----VIRGIN ATLANTIC AIRWAYS - VS 13% 15%
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avbuff
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of the traffic Virgin Atlantic has carried in the past 12 months, 65% of the traffic has been LON and 30% to NYC and some 2% to SFO.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Past 12 months on DEL LON .... AI has 27% MS followed by BA with 19% then 9W with 17%.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

For the sake of the above discussion I'll pull put the fare slabs on DEL LON by the above carriers, just to give you a yield perspective. Give me a days time please and I'll try to pull out some figures.
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me111993
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very interesting Ojas, thanks a lot for the numbers,

firstly, incredible to see AI right up there, given how BA with the 77E-77E / 744-744 Summer / Winter offer almost as many seats as AI does with the 77W-787, round about 4000 seats per week each way for both.

secondly, i found the 2% difference in VS's Market Share (Year to date vs last 12 months) very intriguing, either they're losing market share in 2014, or they claw back to 15% average in the last month with the 340-600, but then BA with the 2X 744s in Winters should show a similar surge on the YTD vs MAT figures, in market share.

Regardless of that, BA / 9W / AI seem fairly immune to seasonal demand in this market, via whatever means, but VS is, indicating that they perhaps have a weaker hold (?).

EK / EY have a larger market share on DEL-LHR in YTD vs MAT, the exact opposite of VS, which can probably be explained by the surge in capacity in 2014, to DEL.

QR with a nice loyal 4% base, with the rest (KU/WY) pushing through their cheapest fare buckets on this route.

Awaiting the next update, and the BOM numbers. Smile

thanks a lot for this.
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sumantra
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ojas, I will echo Rishul's words: a big thank you.
The AI market share lead was a pleasant surprise, since most of the low-fare economy tickets are generally on VS and 9W, on the non-stop DEL-LHR market, on an average, over the year.
Cheers, Sumantra.
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jbalonso777
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 30, 2014 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ojas, thank you sharing those numbers with us!
Interesting to see AI miles away in the front of the chasing pack!
The excel issue, maybe you can take a screenshot of it and post it here? Kinda weird but that's better than nothing.....
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Karan69
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ojas thnk you so much for posting these numbers,

jason welcome back,

I am kind of sad to see Virgin go, for me after SQ their soft product was the best, not to mention their 333s were gorgeous,

Even bummed about DL stopping flights, but look forward to the flying dutchman

Karan
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avbuff
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BOM LHR market share:


Pos:WORLDWIDE
Origin:MUMBAI
Destination:LONDON
Document Type:TOTAL
Time:OCT2014

--------------------------- YTD. BKG MS MAT.BKG. MS
TOTAL AIRLINE---------------- 100% 100%
    BRITISH AIRWAYS PLC - BA 17% 17%
    DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA - LH 2% 1%
    EMIRATES - EK 11% 9%
    ETIHAD AIRWAYS - EY 2% 2%
    GULF AIR COMPANY G.S.C - GF 2% 2%
    JET AIRWAYS INDIA - 9W 33% 33%
    KUWAIT AIRWAYS CORP. - KU 0% 1%
    NACIL D/B/A AIR INDIA - AI 12% 15%
    OMAN AIR (SAOC) - WY 2% 1%
    QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED - QF 1% 1%
    QATAR AIRWAYS - QR 2% 2%
    SWISS INTERNATIONAL AIR LINES (LX-724) - LX 1% 1%
    TURKISH AIRLINES INC. - TK 1% 1%
    VIRGIN ATLANTIC AIRWAYS - VS 13% 14%
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jasepl
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

me111993 wrote:
firstly, incredible to see AI right up there, given how BA with the 77E-77E / 744-744 Summer / Winter offer almost as many seats as AI does with the 77W-787, round about 4000 seats per week each way for both.

Well, filling up the plane isn't going to be a problem when you charge well below the competition. As we all know, AI spend far more taxpayer money on these flights than they earn from ticket sales.

Also, these seem to be O&D numbers. So they don't indicate how full the planes were, and don't include the passengers carried from XXX to BOM/DEL and from LHR to XXX. In BA's case, that connecting traffic is likely a more significant percentage than other airlines. Jet and Virgin probably also have meaningful connecting traffic, but I doubt it's as much as BA do.
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sumantra
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jasepl wrote:
Well, filling up the plane isn't going to be a problem when you charge well below the competition. As we all know, AI spend far more taxpayer money on these flights than they earn from ticket sales.
Jason, yes-and-no, I think. As I had mentioned above, the lowest-priced tickets on the DEL-LHR sector on an average are typically VS and 9W, not BA/AI, round the year. However, yes, the yields are the most important parameter. In my personal experience on this sector, I have thanked my stars that I was travelling on official work, else AI's Y offering was always quite high, during the time of my trips, in fact, higher than BA, specifically.
However, yes, the yields are the most important parameter: and it will really be interesting to see AI's overall yields on this sector. Further, the F and J offerings, versus the yields, too.
jasepl wrote:
...but I doubt it's as much as BA do.
BA had traditionally been the biggest player on this sector since around the 1960s-70s, hence to see AI having the Lion's share of the market was indeed a pleasant surprise. If Ojas had not quoted these figures, a layperson like me would have guessed that BA would have had the biggest bite of the pie. Ditto for the premium classes F and J between DEL and LHR.
There is another point here. The sector has capacity and scope, and all 4 seem to do well here: AI, BA, 9W, VS.
Cheers, Sumantra.


Last edited by sumantra on Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:12 am; edited 1 time in total
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ameya
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Ojas ! Interesting info ! Nice to see AI on top there
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avbuff
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jasepl wrote:
me111993 wrote:
firstly, incredible to see AI right up there, given how BA with the 77E-77E / 744-744 Summer / Winter offer almost as many seats as AI does with the 77W-787, round about 4000 seats per week each way for both.

Well, filling up the plane isn't going to be a problem when you charge well below the competition. As we all know, AI spend far more taxpayer money on these flights than they earn from ticket sales.

Also, these seem to be O&D numbers. So they don't indicate how full the planes were, and don't include the passengers carried from XXX to BOM/DEL and from LHR to XXX. In BA's case, that connecting traffic is likely a more significant percentage than other airlines. Jet and Virgin probably also have meaningful connecting traffic, but I doubt it's as much as BA do.


The only connecting traffic Virgin has taken is to NYC and SFO. That's it. Of the total traffic VS carried 65% has been to LON; 30% to NYC and 2% SFO.

Regarding the fares; all fares in Y class are aligned across carriers ex - Delhi. INR11,000 approximately is the cheapest round trip base fare on AI, 9W and VS give or take a few hundred rupees here and there. BA has been INR 14,000.
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Jaysit
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ojas -

What's the make-up of BOM-LHR traffic? Do you know how much VS carries on the route?
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avbuff
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaysit wrote:
Ojas -

What's the make-up of BOM-LHR traffic? Do you know how much VS carries on the route?


Passenger demographic or the TOP destinations of VS ex - BOM?
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avbuff
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is the % break up of the traffic carried by VS to various cities

--------------------------------------------------------
Airline:VIRGIN ATLANTIC AIRWAYS - VS
Origin:MUMBAI
Pos:WORLDWIDE
Document Type:TOTAL
Time:OCT2014

------------------------ YTD.EK.BKG MAT.EK.BKG
WORLDWIDE 100% 100%
        ATLANTA 4% 3%
        BOSTON 3% 4%
        CHICAGO 6% 4%
        DETROIT 2% 1%
        EDINBURGH 1% 1%
        LONDON 40% 45%
        LOS ANGELES 4% 4%
        MANCHESTER 4% 3%
        MIAMI 2% 2%
        NEW YORK 19% 17%
        SAN FRANCISCO 5% 5%
        WASHINGTON 4% 4%
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jasepl
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we look at Ojas' two sets of statistics together, the picture becomes clearer.

My reading is that VS aren't doing to bad at all out of Bombay.

Just under half their traffic is bound for London, and they still manage to capture 15% of the BOM-LHR market. So it seems they're punching above their weight, at least in terms of volume.

(Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, which is very likely!)
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The_Goat
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The one thing that is really heartening from avbuff's statistics is that the leading carrier on BOM-LHR is an Indian one - 9W accounts for nearly a third of the total.

Who says Jasepl's randi isn't getting it right Wink
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jasepl
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hahahah! Not mine, from any angle. Ewwww. God knows what diseases I'll catch.

Pls 2 read signature again pls.

By the way, how did Qantas ghusao in that list?
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The_Goat
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jasepl wrote:
.

By the way, how did Qantas ghusao in that list?


And DL/KL and AF are absent, surprisingly. Not even 1%.
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Nimish
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So DL/ VS seem to be taking the USA-LHR traffic to be humongous, for their sake, I sure hope it is! VS might as well soon shut down it's FFP and so on, as it's mainly catering to US pax headed to LHR - which DL's FFP will anyway be dealing with.
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Nimish
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

avbuff wrote:
Mods, can you please have a function to embed excel sheets so that I can share more data.


Not possible on this platform, hence the best way to share a sheet is to upload on Google Docs and paste the link here. Or take a screenshot, save the image and link the image here.
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Karan69
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jasepl wrote:
Hahahah!

By the way, how did Qantas ghusao in that list?


I am one of those unfortunately fortunate people to travel one sector by Qantas [lhr-dxb] and literally "ghusaoed" as i was in the middle row middle seat of a FULL 10 abreast 380

Karan
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