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Iraq being over run by Al Qaeda?

 
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The_Goat
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2014 9:51 pm    Post subject: Iraq being over run by Al Qaeda? Reply with quote

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/12/world/meast/iraq-violence/

This Al Qaeda backed group has already captured two cities, is about to capture a third and has vowed to take over Baghdad.

And nobody seems to be paying any attention. At this rate, Al Qaeda will soon control an entire country, an oil rich one at that.

Thank you, George Bush! Rolling Eyes
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Spiderguy252
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2014 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, they seem to be falling apart.

As long as Baghdad and Basra stick together, the oil markets can hope to remain calm. The Rumaillah field is well to the South and it seems to be compensating well in scaling up supply to compensate for Iran's decreased production due to sanctions.
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G-BYGB
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2014 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Iraq unrest is the highlight of poor governance by Maliki. He has failed to reconcile with the Sunnis. That is why there is a lack of trust on the part of Sunnis and the Jihadist group, the ISIS has been able to mobilise and spread the Islamic terror again.

In reality, it seems to me that a 'Pluralistic Democracy and the Islamic society' cannot co-exist at all. The best example is the wave of 'Arab spring' that took place in the Middle East, had promised a wind of change in giving voice to the people, both majority and the marginalised community.

But then, as it turned out to be, it is the shift of power from one extreme to another extreme. Tomorrow if Assad regime is ousted from Syria, we will still see no hope for the Syrians, as the Islamic fundamentalist will take over the reign and spread terror.
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abhijith16
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2014 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G-BYGB wrote:

In reality, it seems to me that a 'Pluralistic Democracy and the Islamic society' cannot co-exist at all. The best example is the wave of 'Arab spring' that took place in the Middle East, had promised a wind of change in giving voice to the people, both majority and the marginalised community.


Bingo! Spot on observation, sir!

For example, look at Libya, Egypt and Syria. They are now completely lost.

The only one that managed to get it right is Tunisia. Everyone else seems to be in a tailspin...
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ssbmat
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 14, 2014 7:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The BIGGEST contributor to this entire mess is of course, Uncle Sam and their vaunted ideals of democracy and liberalism.

Had they not allowed the rest of the world, notably the Middle East/North Africa to let be, we would not have come to this stage.

Their desire to overcome Soviet advance into Afghanistan by provoking fundamentalist fighters is the root cause.

Now, very slyly, they are indicating they do not want to go back to Iraq. Why do they need to, anyway ? They are not having any worries about crude oil.

They have plenty of regular reserves , not to mention the whole shale-based ones.

It is countries like India and NaMo who need to be worried, since this is coming on the back of a weaker than anticipated monsoon and has major implications on the economy.
For so many years, the Congress had stable environmental factors, and yet they completely screwed things up and left the mess for NDA to clean up.
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Spiderguy252
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 14, 2014 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ssbmat wrote:
Their desire to overcome Soviet advance into Afghanistan by provoking fundamentalist fighters is the root cause.


I've always wondered about this; the need for them to 're-enter' Afghanistan and Iraq in the 2000s, well after the demise of the Soviets. Iraq especially. Saddam was as benign as they come, post the Gulf War of 1990/91.
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Aseem
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ssbmat wrote:


Couldn't agree more. And that George H.W.Bush, who started it all, is taking a sky dive at 90.

VT-ASJ
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G-BYGB
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ssbmat wrote:


Their desire to overcome Soviet advance into Afghanistan by provoking fundamentalist fighters is the root cause.



There was a similar temptation for the US Congress, mainly the tea party Republicans to urge the Obama administration to send troops to Syria. But better sense prevailed this time to not wage another war to eliminate a brutal regime in Syria.

I think in the Middle East, there will be no moderate rebels at all. As we are seeing there right now, the so-called rebel groups are a part of Jihad network, promoted by Al-Qaeda.

If you give a berth to trouble makers as a strategic move to keep your perceived enemy or any country on a backfoot, then ones when the job is done, you are going to be their next target.

From here on, the best foreign policy that the current and future US presidents should follow, is to leave the world issues to be solved by other countries and concentrate only on their domestic matters. I think an average American is sick of going to a war that they can never win.
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airindia787
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 17, 2014 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

G-BYGB wrote:
From here on, the best foreign policy that the current and future US presidents should follow, is to leave the world issues to be solved by other countries and concentrate only on their domestic matters. I think an average American is sick of going to a war that they can never win.


Agreed. The vast majority of Americans agree that the US had no business going to Iraq in the first place. Only Bush and his cronies thought it would be a good idea to invade and oust Saddam Hussein based on false evidence of WMDs. In the future, the US should avoid engaging in bloody and hopeless conflicts and limit military involvement to airstrikes and drone strikes. There has been some success with this strategy against Al-Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan/Pakistan as well as the joint US-French operation in Mali.
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Jaysit
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2014 3:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ssbmat wrote:
The BIGGEST contributor to this entire mess is of course, Uncle Sam and their vaunted ideals of democracy and liberalism.

Had they not allowed the rest of the world, notably the Middle East/North Africa to let be, we would not have come to this stage.

Their desire to overcome Soviet advance into Afghanistan by provoking fundamentalist fighters is the root cause.

Now, very slyly, they are indicating they do not want to go back to Iraq. Why do they need to, anyway ? They are not having any worries about crude oil.

They have plenty of regular reserves , not to mention the whole shale-based ones.

It is countries like India and NaMo who need to be worried, since this is coming on the back of a weaker than anticipated monsoon and has major implications on the economy.
For so many years, the Congress had stable environmental factors, and yet they completely screwed things up and left the mess for NDA to clean up.


This is more word salad, not to mention a list of unfounded conclusions and assertions.

First of all, the US still imports about 40% of its oil, mostly from the ME. Second, Iraq's oil exports are minimal at present in comparison to world oil output, not to mention the fact that Iraq's oil exports to India are a trickle at best. Third, the other oil exporters in the ME, not to mention Norway, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. have no reason not to step in and boost their own exports should Iraqi oil exports be in jeopardy because the global economy - and their subsequent oil exports - would collapse.

Lastly, I'm not sure what stable environmental factors you're talking about. The global economy collapsed in late 2008, oil prices have skyrocketed since then, and the monsoons are about as fickle as a hooker having to choose between MC or VISA.
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Spiderguy252
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2014 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaysit wrote:
First of all, the US still imports about 40% of its oil, mostly from the ME.


Wrong. The top source of oil imports for the United States is Canada, followed by Mexico and with the first of the Middle East nations coming in at third - Saudi Arabia. Venezuela, Iraq, Angola and Nigeria follow in that order, based on stats from 2013.

Jaysit wrote:
Second, Iraq's oil exports are minimal at present in comparison to world oil output, not to mention the fact that Iraq's oil exports to India are a trickle at best.


Only partially correct. Any nation's oil 'exports' are miniature compared to the world's total oil 'output' (exports and otherwise). Take Saudi Arabia and their daily production of 8.9 MBpd for instance (Crude + Condensate + Natural Gas Liquids). They export 5.7 MBpd off of that, which is only a small chunk compared to the world's total output of 87 MBpd as of 2013, so I'm not sure what your point is trying to convey.

Iraq is the only nation that has reasonable potential to step up their crude output looking forward, with the other majors having peaked and struggling to pump out light crude to circumvent the inevitable decline that follows. The 2 extra MBpd that Iraq has provided to the world oil market since 2010 has helped the world nicely tide over the Libyan crisis and Iran's inevitable squeeze due to sanctions, failing which we would have seen oil prices shoot up more considerably than they have.

Now though, Iraq is falling apart and we're seeing the results.

Jaysit wrote:
Third, the other oil exporters in the ME, not to mention Norway, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. have no reason not to step in and boost their own exports should Iraqi oil exports be in jeopardy because the global economy - and their subsequent oil exports - would collapse.


Adding to the fact that the vast majority of exporters you mention can't increase exports beyond their current levels as they're pumping flat out. The only 3 producers with any meaningful spare capacity all lie in the OPEC and MENA circle - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE with a top spare capacity not exceeding 2.8 MBpd or so - but spare capacity in such a sense is misleading, as Saudi Arabia for instance can't be pressed to produce the extra crude as they lack the refining and GOSP infrastructure to push forward at such short notice. Seasonally, this isn't the best time of the year for exports from such nations either, as nearly all electricity plants in the region are flared by oil (compared to the global average of 2%) and the summer represents the time where a lot of domestic consumption is called for.

Jaysit wrote:
The global economy collapsed in late 2008, oil prices have skyrocketed since then, and the monsoons are about as fickle as a hooker having to choose between MC or VISA.


Not really. Oil prices were hovering at a level of $5 - $20 a barrel for many decades until Ghawar, Burgan and Cantarell started to struggle come the early-2000s leading to them exploding since 2003. October 2008 thus far has proven to be the absolute peak in terms of prices (147$ a barrel) and it's relatively cooled off since through to the early 2010s but never getting back to the earlier level of peanuts.

So yes, while oil prices have shot up over the years, it has in fact decreased significantly since the economic crisis of 2008.
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HAWK21M
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2014 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So when is the Allied invasion.......Incomplete mess another one.
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