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The 787 - What should Air India do?

 
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What should Air India do with its 787 order?
Cancel it completely
13%
 13%  [ 5 ]
Sell ALL the delivery slots to other carriers
13%
 13%  [ 5 ]
Take partial delivery and sell partial delivery slots
31%
 31%  [ 12 ]
Take delivery of all 27 ordered aircraft
42%
 42%  [ 16 ]
Total Votes : 38

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Devesh
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 12:30 pm    Post subject: The 787 - What should Air India do? Reply with quote

Given the high levels of knowledge in this forum, I thought this would be the ideal place to have an intelligent discussion on the 27 787 Dreamliners ordered by Air India.

    As we are hearing, the carrier does not have the funds to pay for these aircraft

    Air India does need a medium sized 200~250 seat aircraft

    The carrier has excess large capacity (B77W) and long range (B77L) aircraft

    Air India is demanding $1 billion compensation from Boeing for the 787 delay

    Insiders though say that the kickbacks and payouts have already been made, and there is no way Air India can back out of this deal?


What do you feel should Air India do?

1.
Cancel the order completely. Walk away from Boeing.
2.
Commit to the order, take compensation from Boeing, but sell away all the delivery slots to other airlines and make some more profit? (Someone with inside knowledge of aircraft procurement will have to clarify will Boeing accept some like this).
3.
As point 2, but take some 787 deliveries (in which case how many?) and sell the balance slots?
4.
Take delivery of the 27 ordered aircraft.

In addition what should be done with the existing B77W and B77L fleet?

If you feel AI should take delivery of the 787 in part, what is the number of aircraft you advocate and what will be the deployment/usage of these aircraft?
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jasepl
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They need to get rid of the planes with minimal additional loss to the exchequer.

Perhaps they can do that with option two - keep the order but let some other airline or a lessor take delivery. At the same time, they might be able to get some compensation from Boeing for the delays (as hollow as that claim is).

Seems to me all of the other options will not only mean additional cost, but also additional loss. Something that India, one of the poorest countries in the world, cannot afford simply for the sake of vanity or for a false sense of misplaced patriotism and national pride.

If you don't fly a route/plane, you can't make a loss on it.
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Nimish
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Definitely not take delivery - when there's no money to pay for fuel/ salaries, don't need a further cash outflow.

So option 2 would be the most financially prudent - if possible. As to their "needs" for 787s, we don't have a clue as to where they intend to deploy them, and probably AI don't either. So instead of basking in the sun at BOM/ DEL at the Indian taxpayers cost, let them do some useful work for another airline.

Most of AI's focus is on regional routes - which IX's 737s can easily deal with, or also the 320 family with AI. AI's long hauls are few and far between anyway, plus they dont have a clue as to additional destination, and even if they did, it would be a loss making route. Might as well focus to regional flying and a few ULH routes and be done with it.
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HAWK21M
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My take would be get AI back on track.....Fresh Aircraft can contribute to a significant shift in reliability.
I know money is an Issue,but if a recovery can be made,a little more spending is needed.

The problem areas to be tackled as mentioned before is :-
1.Employee morale & Attitude.Needs to be more proactive.
2.Reduce the Staff freebees.
3.eliminate political Interference.
4.Get Mgmt that functions & is accountable.
5.Unions should be pro company.
6.In tough times sacrafices by staff in terms of benifits are required,which can be reinstated later.If the Airline sinks no one benifits.
7.PRIVATISE.

The Recovery plan should be effective.AI is one airline in the country that has everything needed to succeed in terms of Infrastructure.
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Jaysit
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keep the 787s because they are smaller, cheaper to operate, and more nimble and flexible in terms of a wide variety of routes they can operate on (SE Asia, Africa, US, EU, etc.).

In the interim, get rid of the 77Ls and the most of the 77Ws that appear to be much too large for some of AI's routes, for example CDG, FRA, NRT, HKG, etc. The 787s can fly to JFK, EWR, as well as be used to start new routes to Oz, Africa, etc.

A fleet with 27 787s, 5 77Ws, and the A32X family is all they need for the next 5 years or so.
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me111993
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 787's could/should be used for DEL-HKG/FRA/NRT/LHR (one of the LHR dailies, replacing the 77L). BOM-DXB/LHR (the 1 flight doesn't do well, by what I hear).
Launch BOM-ORD. The non-stops are their strong points, they shouldn't venture into unknown territory like MEL.

That makes 8 787's. Take delivery of 10 in parts over 2 years, rest 17, take delivery after they've managed to negotiate a deal to sell them off to a leasing company or an airline. (shouldn't be at all difficult).
Most importantly, lease out 5 77W's and 6 77L's.
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The_Goat
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaysit wrote:


In the interim, get rid of the 77Ls and the most of the 77Ws that appear to be much too large for some of AI's routes, for example CDG, FRA, NRT, HKG, etc. The 787s can fly to JFK, EWR, as well as be used to start new routes to Oz, Africa, etc.

so.


It will be difficult to get rid of the 77Ls. Nobody seems to be interested in that type.

I'd say, keep the 77Ls for the more popular non-stop routes in the US( JFK, ORD, EWR), and in the EU (LHR). Deploy the 787 everywhere else (Terminators in Continental EU, Far East, Africa, Australia) and also for nonstops to secondary destinations in N.America( IAD, YYZ). With 27 aircraft, there are lots of possibilities. Sell or lease out the 77Ws, while the demand for the type is still there. Maybe a couple of the 77Ws can be operated in a high density, all Y configuration on Gulf routes.
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iah87
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Assuming that AI is still around and is capable of paying, the best case would be No. 3. They need some 787's (probably about 10) to operate economically, but not necessarily all 27. They can sell some of the slots and bank that money.
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Nimish
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think my key concern is the urgency to sort this out. The first 787 is due for delivery in a few months, and the decision from the airline should be made now, else the penalties will only get higher. Plus again - if they decide to take a few (or all) 787s, they need to start planning the operations - pilots/ crew/ mx/ routes/ viability etc. The decision can't be postponed, unless it's to go forward with the order as is.
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HAWK21M
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only problem with the B787 is how long grounding time needed to repair a ramp damage to the aircraft...........
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jasepl
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a couple of question for all those who feel AI should take more planes / be allowed to continue flying etc:

1. How many chances should AI be given. Regardless of who's fault the mess is, how bad things have to get before you feel enough is enough?

2. What is the reasoning behind allowing it to continue flying? Is there a need?
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A-2 : 30K government employees.
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jasepl
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

me111993 wrote:
A-2 : 30K government employees.

Well, that's one reason.

I haven't done a calculation (and certainly won't attempt one), but if AI were shut down today and every single one of these employees were paid today their salaries in full for every year until their retirement, I suspect the taxpayer will still come out better off.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Take in all 27 of them. The compensation Boeing will dole out for their delay far outweighs the losses AI will make in the medium term.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jasepl wrote:
me111993 wrote:
A-2 : 30K government employees.

Well, that's one reason.

I haven't done a calculation (and certainly won't attempt one), but if AI were shut down today and every single one of these employees were paid today their salaries in full for every year until their retirement, I suspect the taxpayer will still come out better off.


that's precisely why no employee quits AI, pay or no pay.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shut Down the Socialist entity and let it be reborn in a whole new Capitalistic avatar. It would be essential to do this before taking the delivery of B787.

Also, there are many Mid-East carriers who would be willing to get their birds ASAP. QR & RJ have both been critically vocal about the delays.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 2:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

me111993 wrote:
jasepl wrote:
me111993 wrote:
A-2 : 30K government employees.

Well, that's one reason.

I haven't done a calculation (and certainly won't attempt one), but if AI were shut down today and every single one of these employees were paid today their salaries in full for every year until their retirement, I suspect the taxpayer will still come out better off.


that's precisely why no employee quits AI, pay or no pay.


The huge workforce is the biggest problem of AI. There is solution for all other problems but since it's a public sector enterprise, no government will ever have the guts to allow or approve a massive manpower cut proposal by AI Management (if ever such a decision is made by the management). AI Management alone can't implement such a decision.

If excess manpower was not an issue, AI could have organized fund to take delivery (at least partial) of those 27 787s. Some of those 773s could have been sold (I am guessing 77Ls have no demand) to make room for 787s. More non-stops could have been launched, DEL could have been used more as hub to connect passengers between continents...

But any sensible business model will fail in today's AI simply because of it's mammoth headcount.
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Jaysit
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 3:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AI's annual wage costs (including benefits) in 2009 (the last year for which I could find information) were over Rs. 3,000 crores (or US$ 640 million). This runs to greater than Rs. 10 lakhs per worker (about US$21,300), which is rather high for an Indian entity who should be realizing greater salary advantages over foreign competitors by virtue of being based in a low wage nation.

Compare that with US carriers that range between $65000 (US Airways) to $85000 (AA) for 2009, and its not that high at all, especially if you take into account that pilots and engineers command high salaries.

Of course, productivity per worker at US carriers measured in terms of wage cost per unit mile is much higher than at AI.

And then you have the airline's fuel bill, which because of the ATF taxes of greater than 30% pretty much wipes out any advantage the airline may have in terms of operating in a low wage nation such as India.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 8:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In terms of the head count, i have some interesting figures for the oneWorld alliance:

AA operates a fleet of 914 with 78,250 employees. BA/IB has a combined fleet of 416 with 56,213 employees. Air Berlin has a ratio of 169 birds to 8900 employees, while Russia's S7 has a fleet of 41 with 2149 employees.

Kingfisher has a fleet of 66, with 7400 employees. Any idea what's the headcount for AIC's 103 (+30 orders) fleet..?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I could care less what the world's worst airline does with itself, its debts or whatever.

I do wish they would just die and get it over with. Air India is like that suicidal person on top of the building. Instead of talking him down, just let him jump.

In addition to being a horrible airline, they had the gall to order so many expensive planes they didn't need, all for vanity.

I laugh at their predicament. I rejoice in their failure. I am elated at their embarassment, and I am finally, absolutely delighted in their misery.

Eat it, AI, you piece of crap airline. You are a cancer on the Indian business world and a laughingstock of aviation.

The more AI beclowns itself, the more I am happy. So, keep the bad news coming, you losers.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

me111993 wrote:
that's precisely why no employee quits AI, pay or no pay.


That's also precisely why almost no-one wants to quit government-type jobs anywhere. It is not endemic to Air India or India.

And I don't quite see the co-relation between employees not wanting to quit and shutting down the airline. For sure it's not a reason to keep the damn thing alive (we can't pack up because no-one wants to leave). AI aren't a restaurant and the employees aren't high-spending customers.
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Devesh
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Goat wrote:
It will be difficult to get rid of the 77Ls. Nobody seems to be interested in that type.

I'd say, keep the 77Ls for the more popular non-stop routes in the US( JFK, ORD, EWR), and in the EU (LHR). Deploy the 787 everywhere else (Terminators in Continental EU, Far East, Africa, Australia) and also for nonstops to secondary destinations in N.America( IAD, YYZ). With 27 aircraft, there are lots of possibilities. Sell or lease out the 77Ws, while the demand for the type is still there. Maybe a couple of the 77Ws can be operated in a high density, all Y configuration on Gulf routes.


A thought came to me. Why not operate the 77Ls to Dubai and other Gulf destinations. On the outbound use the extra space for cargo. On the return use the spare tanks and bring back at least 100+tons of fuel. I am sure the 77L will have at least 150~200 tons fuel capacity. AI will save about 25%~30% of sales tax on ATF which will be about Rs. 15,000+ per ton (someone will inside knowledge can tune the figures). A typical BOM-DEL A320 flight uses about 8~10 tons of fuel? So 1 77L can bring back enough fuel for 20 flights. Operate 1 77L to each of the major bases say BOM and DEL, and BLR since Karnataka imposes 28% tax on ATF.
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Devesh
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mods, I had started this thread to have a discussion on the 787s and fleet deployment / usage for Air India.

1.
I request fellow members to please keep our discussions in focus.

2.
Those who want to express general opinions about AI, its opening, closing, staff, etc., please post your views in the AI thread. Please do not use this thread.

3.
Request the mods to please move the non aircraft messages to the general AI thread.

TIA
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The_Goat
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Devesh wrote:

A thought came to me. Why not operate the 77Ls to Dubai and other Gulf destinations. On the outbound use the extra space for cargo. On the return use the spare tanks and bring back at least 100+tons of fuel. I am sure the 77L will have at least 150~200 tons fuel capacity. AI will save about 25%~30% of sales tax on ATF which will be about Rs. 15,000+ per ton (someone will inside knowledge can tune the figures). A typical BOM-DEL A320 flight uses about 8~10 tons of fuel? So 1 77L can bring back enough fuel for 20 flights. Operate 1 77L to each of the major bases say BOM and DEL, and BLR since Karnataka imposes 28% tax on ATF.



That is a good idea, but there's one difficulty. With 100+ tons of fuel on board, the airplane will be too heavy to land, particularly if the pax load is high.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow. A third of the folks think AI should take delivery of all the 787s they've ordered.

Do you really want to pay for them out of your pocket? Or could it be that many of the respondents aren't taxpayers in India?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jasepl wrote:
Wow. A third of the folks think AI should take delivery of all the 787s they've ordered.

Do you really want to pay for them out of your pocket? Or could it be that many of the respondents aren't taxpayers in India?


65% want some or all the 787s taken up (based on the poll results so far), that's a large number! At least we know the mood is consistenly in one direction...

I guess one way to justify this is our tax money is hosed anyway - either in some neta's pocket, or in the collective pockets of AI. At least we'll have the latest a/c in the world and something to boast about Smile
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jasepl
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nimish wrote:
I guess one way to justify this is our tax money is hosed anyway - either in some neta's pocket, or in the collective pockets of AI.

At least the neta's embezzlement gets converted into shopping trips for his wife, or phoren educations for his kids, or a farmhouse for his ego or and diamonds for his mistress.

Giving it to AI basically means turning money into invisible smoke!
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the support is for AI as an Airline that needs to succeed considering it has everything Infrastructurewise to do so ....Its upto the Mgmt recruited for the purpose to ensure it does & Kickback/Freebees are eliminated.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/air-india-to-go-ahead-with-acquisition-of-boeing-787s/articleshow/9995394.cms

AI chooses Option 4!!

Quote:
Air India to go ahead with acquisition of Boeing 787s

Air India would go ahead with the acquisition of Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft as part of its overall expansion programme and seek government's nod for it, official sources said today.

A decision to this effect is understood to have been taken by the Air India Board which met here today in the backdrop of Civil Aviation Minister Vayalar Ravi's statements that the ailing airline did not have enough money to go in for a massive fleet acquisition plan.

While the airline has placed orders for 27 Boeing 787s with the first delivery expected later this year, the Group of Ministers headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, which is reviewing its turnaround plan, is likely to take a final decision in this regard, the sources said.

At the meeting, the Board also reviewed the airline's liquidity position and infusion of funds from the government, an airline spokesperson said, adding that Air India has so far received Rs 1,200 crore by way of equity infusion in 2011-12.

On the aircraft acquisition issue, the Board reviewed the modified Turnaround Plan prepared by SBICaps in which suggested "a scenario for expansion" if Air India was to grow as per the growth rate of the aviation market, he said.

The acquisition of Boeing 787 deal is understood to have been part of this modified turnaround plan and expansion programme and a presentation on the Dreamliner acquisition was made at the Board meeting.

The turnaround plan was based on the recommendations of the Committee of Officers from the Finance and other ministries, which had earlier suggested that "a scenario for expansion should be prepared if Air India was to grow as per market growth rate".


No word on how the payments will be managed though - quite strange!
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2011 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like 14 of the proposed 27 for now.......
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2011 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What would be the range of the 772L's of AI ? IMHO they can do DEL-LAX or DEL-SFO on an eastern routing.

If so, why has AI not considered a west coast non-stop?
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2011 11:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Devesh wrote:
What would be the range of the 772L's of AI ? IMHO they can do DEL-LAX or DEL-SFO on an eastern routing.

If so, why has AI not considered a west coast non-stop?


DEL-SFO was seriously considered by AI a long while ago, but dropped due to lack of perceived yields/ loads IMO.

Makes sense in hindsight, given they've dropped out of *A now - which would have been critical for success in SFO.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2011 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IMO taking 27 new wide bodies is pointless.
What the airline needs to do is trim their fat, trim their routes and trim their fleet.

Keeping a few 787 would be good, and can replace a few 777.
They are in no position to buy aircrafts- they have no money. A330 can be leased (properly not the AI way....) and used on short/medium haul routes.

50+ new aircrafts... what in the world are they thinking? They want to expand domestic ops because Indigo can? They want 'brand new state of the art wide bodies' because other carriers are in a position to buy them?
Start smaller, grow slowly. Air India isn't Qatar!
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