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BOM and DEL PAx Traffic Growth over 2014-2015

 
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Jaysit
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 9:32 pm    Post subject: BOM and DEL PAx Traffic Growth over 2014-2015 Reply with quote

Looks like both BOM and DEL will fly past the 40 million pax mark for calendar year 2015, with DEL likely to hit 45 million pax.

For the first six calendar months of 2015, BOM registered an average of 17.8% (7.7% international pax and 22.7% domestic pax) growth over the same period for 2014. DEL recorded 13.2% (4.4% international and 17.7% domestic).

For the July 2014-June 2015 12 month period, BOM is showing over 38 million, and DEL over 42.3 millon.

If this level of growth continues over the next 6 months, BOM is likely to see about 41.2 million pax and DEL 45 million for the 2015 calendar year.
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airbus340
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 9:53 pm    Post subject: Re: BOM and DEL PAx Traffic Growth over 2014-2015 Reply with quote

Jaysit wrote:
Looks like both BOM and DEL will fly past the 40 million pax mark for calendar year 2015, with DEL likely to hit 45 million pax.

For the first six calendar months of 2015, BOM registered an average of 17.8% (7.7% international pax and 22.7% domestic pax) growth over the same period for 2014. DEL recorded 13.2% (4.4% international and 17.7% domestic).

For the July 2014-June 2015 12 month period, BOM is showing over 38 million, and DEL over 42.3 millon.

If this level of growth continues over the next 6 months, BOM is likely to see about 41.2 million pax and DEL 45 million for the 2015 calendar year.


Amazes me how BOM manages such numbers with just massive infrastructure constraints .

Either the airport is very well managed or the airlines are just patient and take whatever infrastructure bottlenecks there are in their stride and have learned to live with it .

Without doubt DEL will keep growing faster with UK , AI , 6E and SG as home carriers .
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Jaysit
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

T2 has certainly helped BOM's growth, as have the new taxiways.

At some point, however, airlines will have to upgauge their capacity (A321s instead of A320/19s, for instance), and maybe 9W will have to send widebodies to the likes of AUH and DXB instead of 738s.

London Gatwick, for example, handles about the same # pax as BOM right now, with about 10% fewer landings and takeoffs, plus night curfews in place. BOM doesn't have the curfew problem, so there's still room to grow in terms of frequencies, assuming they can manage aircraft movements as efficiently as Gatwick.
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abhijith16
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:54 am    Post subject: Re: BOM and DEL PAx Traffic Growth over 2014-2015 Reply with quote

Jaysit wrote:
Looks like both BOM and DEL will fly past the 40 million pax mark for calendar year 2015, with DEL likely to hit 45 million pax.

For the first six calendar months of 2015, BOM registered an average of 17.8% (7.7% international pax and 22.7% domestic pax) growth over the same period for 2014. DEL recorded 13.2% (4.4% international and 17.7% domestic).

For the July 2014-June 2015 12 month period, BOM is showing over 38 million, and DEL over 42.3 millon.

If this level of growth continues over the next 6 months, BOM is likely to see about 41.2 million pax and DEL 45 million for the 2015 calendar year.


Not just BOM/DEL, BLR/HYD have also begun surging. A lot of this has to do with constant sales happening in the market. But it does seem like India's aviation sector is (somewhat) back on the growth path.
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The_Goat
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaysit wrote:
T2 has certainly helped BOM's growth, as have the new taxiways.

At some point, however, airlines will have to upgauge their capacity (A321s instead of A320/19s, for instance), and maybe 9W will have to send widebodies to the likes of AUH and DXB instead of 738s.


Indian carriers have much to learn about widebody utilization. While AI seems to have done so somewhat, 9W still has miles to go. One can only wonder what they will do with all those 77Ws once the various leases terminate. I hope they get their qct together quickly. EK and SQ already fly the A380 to India, and no doubt QR and EY will want to do so soon.

Jaysit wrote:

London Gatwick, for example, handles about the same # pax as BOM right now, with about 10% fewer landings and takeoffs, plus night curfews in place. BOM doesn't have the curfew problem, so there's still room to grow in terms of frequencies, assuming they can manage aircraft movements as efficiently as Gatwick.


Maybe it is better now but at least till a few years ago, Gatwick's movement management used to be a nightmare with every flight getting delayed by 40-45 minutes during peak hours.. Even BOM during its bad days of the early 2000s was better.
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iah87
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaysit wrote:
T2 has certainly helped BOM's growth, as have the new taxiways.

At some point, however, airlines will have to upgauge their capacity (A321s instead of A320/19s, for instance), and maybe 9W will have to send widebodies to the likes of AUH and DXB instead of 738s.

London Gatwick, for example, handles about the same # pax as BOM right now, with about 10% fewer landings and takeoffs, plus night curfews in place. BOM doesn't have the curfew problem, so there's still room to grow in terms of frequencies, assuming they can manage aircraft movements as efficiently as Gatwick.


After T2 becomes an integrated terminal for domestic and international especially for Jet and AI, it will pick up more connecting passengers, many of them currently avoid the airport.

If they ever build the new airport in Navi Mumbai, they should put all the international carriers in that airport and leave the national carriers in the current airport, this would increase connecting traffic.
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Karan69
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thats some nifty figures there,
i could have sworn this morning only either Rishul or Abhijeeth mentioned BOM vs DEL at 25 million and 55 million passengers respectively when we were discussing the possibility of DELTAs come back to India on the Watsapp group

@iah87

That does not make much sense , it essentially leaves the International Carriers with just O&D traffic , and why would anyone Originating out of Mumbai wanna drive all the way down to Navi Mumbai to catch a flight when all they have a competitive connection within the city itself

Unless they serve Pune as well it doesnt make much sense

Karan
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iah87
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Karan69 wrote:
Thats some nifty figures there,
i could have sworn this morning only either Rishul or Abhijeeth mentioned BOM vs DEL at 25 million and 55 million passengers respectively when we were discussing the possibility of DELTAs come back to India on the Watsapp group

@iah87

That does not make much sense , it essentially leaves the International Carriers with just O&D traffic , and why would anyone Originating out of Mumbai wanna drive all the way down to Navi Mumbai to catch a flight when all they have a competitive connection within the city itself

Unless they serve Pune as well it doesnt make much sense

Karan


I meant all the foreign flagged carriers to use the new airport and the Indian carriers to use the current airport. This would encourage connecting passengers to use the Indian carriers as most will not connect from foreign carriers due to the hassle. This could hurt EY-9W alliance though.
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sumantra
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iah87 wrote:
I meant all the foreign flagged carriers to use the new airport and the Indian carriers to use the current airport. This would encourage connecting passengers to use the Indian carriers as most will not connect from foreign carriers due to the hassle. This could hurt EY-9W alliance though.
iah87: I think you missed Karan-ji's point. It is not just EY-9W. What about the biggest Alliance in the world, Star Alliance? Alliances and code-shares would go for a nose-dive if such a thing happened.
Cheers, Sumantra.
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GF1011
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sumantra wrote:
iah87 wrote:
I meant all the foreign flagged carriers to use the new airport and the Indian carriers to use the current airport. This would encourage connecting passengers to use the Indian carriers as most will not connect from foreign carriers due to the hassle. This could hurt EY-9W alliance though.
iah87: I think you missed Karan-ji's point. It is not just EY-9W. What about the biggest Alliance in the world, Star Alliance? Alliances and code-shares would go for a nose-dive if such a thing happened.
Cheers, Sumantra.


Good Point, Sir.
Just makes me wonder - what kind of air traffic would the new NMIA see in its initial years? Most international airlines would want to stick to using BOM for passenger convenience sake, wouldn't they?
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Jaydeep
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 02, 2015 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iah87 wrote:
If they ever build the new airport in Navi Mumbai, they should put all the international carriers in that airport and leave the national carriers in the current airport, this would increase connecting traffic.

The better option in my opinion would be to dedicate the existing airport to LCCs (be it national or international carriers) as they usually do not have code-shares, but have connecting traffic. And use the new one for FSCs, which will help the alliances without disruption.

GF1011 wrote:
Just makes me wonder - what kind of air traffic would the new NMIA see in its initial years? Most international airlines would want to stick to using BOM for passenger convenience sake, wouldn't they?

Valid point, but how much say do airlines usually have in this if the government / airport management decides to shift the operations to new base?
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lavence7
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 02, 2015 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think moving FSC's to the new airport, away from city, defies logic as it was it would hurt their business probably when they depend on business travellers. This is like making LCC's use Heathrow or London City airport in London and asking FSC's to use the further away airports on the outskirts. So doesn't make sense. Hope they have logic behind whatever they are planning for the two airports.

And to say government decides who operates from where and blah blah, govt might might be headless but airline boss' aren't.

I think airports in the country, which already operate like real estate markets, should make it more expensive to operate within the city & cheaper on the outskirts i.e for cities having or going to have multiple airports.
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The_Goat
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 02, 2015 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaydeep wrote:

The better option in my opinion would be to dedicate the existing airport to LCCs (be it national or international carriers) as they usually do not have code-shares, but have connecting traffic. And use the new one for FSCs, which will help the alliances without disruption.




Not a bad idea, but you must consider that a lot of pax who arrive on foreign carriers use LCCs to connect within India.

I think a good idea will be to move all the international flights and a few, well timed domestic connectors to the new airport.

The old airport can be made exclusively domestic, catering purely to the O&D traffic which will also be considerable given the rate of growth.
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