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Thoughts on IndiGO & Air Asia Network

 
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ameya
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Location: Pune,Maharashtra

PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:09 pm    Post subject: Thoughts on IndiGO & Air Asia Network Reply with quote

I am linking my blog here, since I added another post

Follow up on how Air Asia can avoid IndiGos onslaught


Last week I wrote how IndiGo is going all out to take on Air Asia India. Yes it is right, that competition has to be contained at early stages and some bit of sentimental expansion like announcing a Bengaluru – Chandigarh but tagging along Srinagar to make it more successful makes a lot of sense.

Over the weekend, I thought more on this, and some interesting facts came up. When Air Asia India launches its second rotation, it would do 16 flights a day with its 2 aircraft and would deploy 2880 seats in the market, while IndiGo with its roughly 516 daily flights, deploys 92880 seats. So 2 bad flights for Air Asia means 12.5% of their capacity for the day is sold on lower yields or that’s not sold as per expectation, while for IndiGo – it means just 0.38% !!

What next – Will Air Asia start the battle and mount a second daily to Chandigarh? And if that is followed by IndiGo? Too bad, it would still mean, not more than 1% of capacity of IndiGo, while it could mean a lot more for Air Asia India.
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Last edited by ameya on Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:56 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Nimish
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:44 pm    Post subject: Re: Thoughts on IndiGO & Air Asia Network Reply with quote

ameya wrote:
I am linking my blog here, since I added another post

The launch of BLR-IXC by 6E in response to AAI

Follow up on how Air Asia can avoid IndiGos onslaught


Can you add an extract (or even full content) of each blog along with the hyperlink?
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ameya
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The launch of BLR-IXC by 6E in response to AAI

For last few days, I was itching to get back to Network Planning – a hobby I have pursued for over 15 years now, and started in the days when I would ask anybody flying around – mostly my father, to get the printed schedule of the airline and then break it down into rotations, aircraft by aircraft. It also was a great way to kill time on the flights whenever I traveled then.

The advent of technology, my stint in Network Planning with Kingfisher and later with Go Air, only increased my knowledge, understanding and interest. While today, I work in the transportation gamut as a whole, the hobby continues.

The itch stopped yesterday, as IndiGo announced a non-stop service on Bengaluru – Chandigarh route, because I think the expansion and capacity induction for the next year or so will be sentimental and not based on analysis, traffic patterns and sustainable growth. Nonetheless, as an avid Network Planning enthusiast, I have the best seat – on the fence , to see how things turn up.

As tweets started trickling in about IndiGo’s pullout from Delhi – Bangkok sector (I think IndiGo has not yet confirmed this but flights are not open for sale), I checked the timings of those flights and realized that one aircraft would be free, which I was sure, would be deployed on domestic routes, and wrote about this on my blog post

IndiGo yesterday opened up reservation on Bengaluru – Chandigarh non-stop service effective 1st September. The entire rotation is designed to take on Air Asia.

6E498 BLR0630 – 0745GOI D (Eff. 3rd Sept)
6E499 GOI0815 – 0930BLR D (Eff. 3rd Sept)
6E477 BLR1000 – 1255IXC D (Eff. 1st Sept)
6E477 IXC1325 – 1425SXR D (Eff. 1st Sept)
6E478 SXR1455 – 1555IXC D (Eff. 1st Sept)
6E478 IXC1625 – 1930BLR D (Eff. 1st Sept)
6E561 BLR2000 – 2110TRV D (Eff. 1st Sept)
6E562 TRV2140 – 2250BLR D (Eff. 1st Sept)

Am I reading too much or is Trivandrum the next destination for Air Asia?

Jet Airways and the least expected – Air India, have jumped into this game of capacity and frequency with Jet Airways, currently 3x Daily on Bengaluru – Kochi, will be 5x Daily. The afternoon frequency will operate on all days except Tuesday owning to closure in Bengaluru.
Jet Airways flights are effective 11thAugust and Air India, will have additional utilization of their ATR-42 based in Bengaluru, effective 1st September.

The flight count on this sector is now 13 each way, which obviously changes depending on day of the week. For a random check which I did while writing this piece, Air Asia flights were available for Rs.990/- each way for September first week, cheaper than the Volvo between the two cities and if Air Asia can break even by December at these fares, I wonder how their financials and aircraft leases are structured!

Only sane news which has come in the last week is that of Air India increasing frequency on the Amritsar – Delhi – Birmingham route to Daily from its current 4x weekly. Glad to know how Delhi as a hub is working for Air India and how B787 DreamLiner is turning a new page and opening up new routes which are successful

As for the domestic scenario – The player with deeper pockets will win again and the consumer will be the winner, sadly only the consumer based on Bengaluru seems to be the winner right now. What more, the over all winner could well be Spicejet, who has so far not shown any inclination to jump in this battle and is busy consolidating its position and salvaging its situation in the market.
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Nimish
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only thing interesting out of this seems to be an unintended IXC-TRV on 6E Smile. Certainly good news for the defense folks based around IXC from South Kerala!

I wonder how much traffic an early morning BLR-GOI routing has - for either I5 or 6E?
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justbala
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 16, 2014 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nimish wrote:
The only thing interesting out of this seems to be an unintended IXC-TRV on 6E Smile. Certainly good news for the defense folks based around IXC from South Kerala!

I wonder how much traffic an early morning BLR-GOI routing has - for either I5 or 6E?


9W-K used to fly IXC-DEL-BLR-TRV (now it does DED-DEL-BLR-TRV on 9W mainline)
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ameya
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nimish wrote:
The only thing interesting out of this seems to be an unintended IXC-TRV on 6E Smile. Certainly good news for the defense folks based around IXC from South Kerala!

I wonder how much traffic an early morning BLR-GOI routing has - for either I5 or 6E?


IT used to do well with ATRs but well during season only. Inherently, BOM has a lot more traffic to GOI and can sustain morning flights, with 2 A320s back to back, either a lot of Bengaluru people are going to head to Goa or its a big loss
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The_Goat
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ameya wrote:

IndiGo yesterday opened up reservation on Bengaluru – Chandigarh non-stop service effective 1st September. The entire rotation is designed to take on Air Asia.



Jet Airways and the least expected – Air India, have jumped into this game of capacity and frequency with Jet Airways, currently 3x Daily on Bengaluru –
Kochi, will be 5x Daily..


The idiot Indian carriers like SG, 9W, AI, 6E can't think out of the box, but will readily copy other people's ideas, and everyone gets scr**ed up in the process.

These fools should be running dharamshalas and not airlines.
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sumantra
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Goat wrote:
These fools should be running dharamshalas and not airlines.
Completely out of the point, but yes, some of them do run services to Dharamshala (including Air India), and make money out of it, too Razz
Cheers, Sumantra.
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sumantra
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ameya wrote:
The launch of BLR-IXC by 6E in response to AAI
Ameya Sir, it was a pleasure to go through this write-up. It was not just the analysis, you have written it in a gripping manner, right from your introduction as to how you got interested in network planning. Beautiful!
Cheers, Sumantra.
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ameya
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The_Goat wrote:
ameya wrote:

IndiGo yesterday opened up reservation on Bengaluru – Chandigarh non-stop service effective 1st September. The entire rotation is designed to take on Air Asia.



Jet Airways and the least expected – Air India, have jumped into this game of capacity and frequency with Jet Airways, currently 3x Daily on Bengaluru –
Kochi, will be 5x Daily..


The idiot Indian carriers like SG, 9W, AI, 6E can't think out of the box, but will readily copy other people's ideas, and everyone gets scr**ed up in the process.

These fools should be running dharamshalas and not airlines.


Yes. There is no thought which gets into planning the routes. The routes need to be strong and that applies from EK to AIr pegasus. Its only then can you have your marketing onslaught and fill up seats
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ameya
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sumantra wrote:
ameya wrote:
The launch of BLR-IXC by 6E in response to AAI
Ameya Sir, it was a pleasure to go through this write-up. It was not just the analysis, you have written it in a gripping manner, right from your introduction as to how you got interested in network planning. Beautiful!
Cheers, Sumantra.


Thanks. You wrote on the day, I5 launched their IXC and JAI flights !
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