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sri_bom · Member Joined: 22 Dec 2006 Posts: 2365 Location: Singapore

Just read this off from the daily newsletter from CAPA....looks premature but seems like Air India is also eyeing A380 I am sure the A380 visit to Delhi/Bombay may signal some announcements:

copy of the CAPA text:

Indian Subcontinent

Air India is considering ordering more B777-200LRs (currently eight on order) for non-stop US services. The carrier confirmed it is also considering A380 equipment.

Kingfisher Airlines announced (26-Apr-07) that the A380 would visit Delhi and Mumbai from 07/10-May-07 – just prior to Kingfisher’s second anniversary of its launch of services. Kingfisher has five A380s on order (and five options).

Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

THey can ply it on the Bom-Dxb and Cok-Dxb route.

Every hour, on the hour.

COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

Or more realistically:
BLR based they could do the following routing:
BLR-SFO-BLR
BLR-(DXB/SHJ/AUH)-COK-(DXB/SHJ/AUH)-BLR

With three of them they could go daily and give competition to KF atleast on fares if not on service!

But who are we kidding here. With an ass like Thulasidas in place there isnt a chance in hell that AI will order Airbus. Or think of competing with KF.

At best they will end up running a 3rd rate service on ratty 777's and end up as an also ran while KF and other pvt carriers will own the market.
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aarbee · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 328 Location: WAS/AMD

Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

the_380 · Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 12:50 pm Post subject:

Nimish · Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2007 4:58 pm Post subject:

I think AI would do well to focus on their current orders and on getting that fleet into revenue service. No point having dreams about 380s if you're not even able to manage the current smaller a/c!

But I agree that it's time for AI to start thinking of additional 787s or 777s to provide for more frequent flights from India.

COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

Considering the way their 777's are bein run right now it doesnt inspire much confidence.

777 or not: there is no quetion of even tryng this airline! Beter to stick to 9W/KF or pvt operators!

Jaysit: it called Competition: whether KF exists or not 5 years down the lime, they are goin to compete hard whil ethey survive. And set standards while doing that. Which is more than what canbe said for AI.

Right now AI has the govt to fall back on: after the IPO etc they will be as vulnerable to market pressures as the private players. And then how are they goin to compete with 9W/KF etc?
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Birendra · Member Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Posts: 1411

Whether IT survives another 5 years or not....AI will and yes so will the A380.

So no wild guesses here Exclamation

Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

the_380 · Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2007 11:33 pm Post subject:

COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

Avijeet buddy: i dont know what you are getting at: Right now the HOTTEST stock in aviation is Deccan: according to insiders expected to hit 170 levels by Nov'07.

And with news about reliance and other UB expressing interest things are looking up for DN! Atelast for their stock levels!

Which is why I was oppoising the merger plan the way it was being done. IC by itself would have attracted higher valuations than Ai or even an AI/IC combine! Especially when it was clear that the combimed AI/IC would be led by an idiot like Thulasidas and his RC/Parsi/Madrasssi team at AI.

with someone like Trivedi and his "Teen Deviyan" team at IC at the helm, a combined AI/IC would have ripped the competiiton apart, and a lot of investors like me would have seen value. Right now with Thulasidas and his team at the helm and a competent professional like trivedi and his team relegated to the background, it just doesnt inspire that sort of confidence! Infact quite the contrary! The stock market picks up things that airplane teenagers dont: and that is financials!

Which is why i am so pissed at Pee Pee! He is tailoring policy purely with an intent to benefit his friends Mr.Keskar of Boeing and his new friend (or rather to be relative) Mr.Vijay Mallya.

pee pee's actions of promoting a pro-Boeing thulasidas reeks of corruption. Which is against Commercial interests and in the interest of fair competion.
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the_380 · Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 12:11 am Post subject:

COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

yeah and?

Dont u think Trivedi and his team are more comptent than Thulasidas?

Face it: IC has a more competent bunch of managers than the jokers heading AI.

If we had a better minister who wasnt influenced by Keskar and Mallya, we would be seeing Thulasidas going back to tripura cadre of IAS and the evil RC/Parsi/Madrassi axis of corruption broken for good.

Imagine: a team headed by Trivedi and the teen deviyaan. Imagine their mgmt skills combined with the higher yields of intl flights coming in through the merger with AI. Thinking purely as an investor: there is no question!
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the_380 · Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 am Post subject:

You reached at their management whereas i was talking about their IPOs Rolling Eyes

That even im aware mgmt at AI is at the worst level....
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COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

As an investor, valuations would be linked to the management!
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the_380 · Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 12:30 am Post subject:

COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

See the merger has reached a point of virtaul no return! Both the govt and the NCP will loose all credibility if they go back from this point.

Righ tnow the issue is not whether the merger will tak eplace, but who will manage the new entity. Pee Pee's actions will decide whether national interests take precedence or his/his party the NCP's interests take precedence over national interest.

Appointing someone like Thulasidas to head AI+IC will destory any attempts at consolidation and will be something that benefits just the competition and Boeing: not India, not the travelling public(whos einterest lies in greater competition), and not the govt(whose interest lies in higher valuations for its holdings in AI/IC).
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Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

The large chunk of its fleet "rotting" as u put it isnt entirely true. There was a problem with the V2500 engines and the maintenance agreement which was under arbitration. Unfortunate but true.

Then the govt needed part of IC's fleet to be stationed in Delhi to ferry diplomats etc around the country for a month or so which ruled out their use in the regular schedule. But they werent exactly rotting as u put it. Underutilised? most deifnitely.

Actually 4 A320's were grounded: 4 out of 48. Less than 10% of the active fleet awaiting checks: whats the industry standard again? 3 other aircraft were underutilized operating little more than a "section" flight bcoz they needed to be kept on Govt reserve. some smart alec-journalist interpreted this as 7 aircraft being "grounded". Sensationalism basically that some on this board seem to have fallen prey to.

But even with this the average utilization of IC's A320's is among the highest in the world! Round robin scheduling technicques make for very effective utilisation. And they deserve the kudos for that. Can they improve? Certainly! But they have overall done a better job than the corrupt team at Nariman Point. These are the idiots behind the 767/757 leases etc. To see the combined airline handed over to these dodos is a cause for concern!
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the_380 · Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 2:52 pm Post subject:

Boeingdream787 · Posted: Wed May 02, 2007 12:45 am Post subject:

Absolutely NO WAY is A.I EVER gonna get the 380's.Totally false rumours.What they ARE gonna get tho are the 747-800's composite version.Orders for 20.Options for 6 more.These will be delivered about 18 months after the first 787.......Cheers.
BD

Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

Aseem · Member Joined: 15 Dec 2006 Posts: 2841 Location: YYZ

sammyk · Posted: Wed May 02, 2007 3:21 am Post subject:

COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

Jaysit: There is no doubt about it: The numbers were purely the domestic operations. Unless you insist on being argumentative.

Every scheduled airline has to keep a number of aircraft as maintenance reserves and "hot spares" etc. And some aircraft were kept aside in this manner. By that logic, 6 B737 aircraft of 9W are currently "rotting" in BOM and DEL!!

In the IC case: FOUR aircraft were grounded because of lack of engine which were due for regular maintenance. And it was the Govt which told IC that is should hold back payment pending clearance of the court cases. So if you want to blame anyone blame the govt. The IC mgmt actually worked around the problem by increasing the utilization of the remaining fleet through better scheduling.

Ofcourse if you want to piss all over somebody, you dont really need logic for it!!
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Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

[quote="COUGAR"]

Every scheduled airline has to keep a number of aircraft as maintenance reserves and "hot spares" etc. And some aircraft were kept aside in this manner. By that logic, 6 B737 aircraft of 9W are currently "rotting" in BOM and DEL!!

[quote]

I'll buy your comments on the Economic Times article and even the number of IC A320s roasting in the sun. But the difference between IC and 9W's spares is that 9W rotates them, while in IC's case the aircraft didn't see the end of a runway for months on end.

And while you're correct when you say that much of IC's woes are a result of the GOI's bureaucracy, one can also say the same for AI. Unfortunatelyl, you cannot separate IC or AI from the GOI. They're arms of the government, and, thus, are subject to its whims.

If IC or AI were to exist as independent corporations, I'm sure that both would thrive, but that isn't reality. The fact that under this aviation minister, both AI and IC have been able to push their fleet expansion to fruition and that civil aviation has been allowed to blossom, so to speak, is perhaps the best one can hope for.

And while AI isn't exactly SQ or EK or for that matter even UL, faulting the airline's maintenance like a broken gramophone without taking into consideration the reality that its fleet is composed of hand-me-down A310s, 767s, old 743s is being grossly unfair. Plus, the logistics of maintaining a fleet that can be up to 2 days from home base can be far more complex than a fleet primarily composed of a single aircraft type that flies an average of 2 hour flights and is never too far from a maintenance base.

COUGAR · Member Joined: 01 Jan 2007 Posts: 986 Location: Bangalore

Jaysit: Its not just the 767's, A310's and 747's that are going tech: even their 777's are going tech with shocking frequency.

And even their spanking new B737-800's are reportedly having problems with range etc making unscheduled "fuel stops" etc.

All this points to poor processes.

As for IC A320's roasting in the sun: well yeah: 4 of them were grounded for an extended period. At the time IC wanted to pay the engine company for the scheduled modifications etc and then claim a refund later once the court hearings got over. They were disallowed to do that! To their credit they got over the situation by better utilization.

FYI: IC holds the world record for the highest average utlization of the A32x family.
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VABBy · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 823 Location: DEL

Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

So what is Mr. Trivedi's background?

Is he also another political appointee like Thulasidas?

the_380 · Posted: Wed May 02, 2007 10:23 pm Post subject:

XBValk · Member Joined: 27 Jan 2007 Posts: 124 Location: NYC/COK

Ah yes, that’s what we need, more grannies on an A380..

Rolling Eyes

Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

karatecatman · Guest

andrew · Member Joined: 24 Apr 2007 Posts: 212

Guys, the reality is that AI and IC will really not be able to compete against a growing an international 9W – which will eventually become the de-facto flag carrier for India being the natural choice of all Indians travelling. AI/IC will be forced into either niche regional market operations or into price play to stay in the game. Their present poor and inefficient processes are not going to help ameliorate their predicament.

The amazing thing is that they have not figured it out. Years or jobs through reservations and protection from Delhi has ensured that the DNA of both companies is far too inefficient to see them through the rapid changes that both the global and Indian CA sectors are witnessing. To think that three A/C are sitting at the Boeing factory because of issues like seats/ livery related decisions…… wow, very expensive don’t you think?

Personally, between AI and IC – I think IC is better run. They have a larger percentage of thru fleet operational and have learnt to respond to fierce competition. AI instead has remained in its slumber, happy with its light loads and oblivious to its pernicious fiscal situation. Look at the AIX planes – so gorgeous outside, flying toilets on the inside…

No bloke from Wharton or Harvard is going to be able to change any of that unless he /she has the freedom to fire and hire ruthlessly.

the_380 · Posted: Thu May 03, 2007 5:08 pm Post subject:

Karan69 · Member Joined: 22 Dec 2006 Posts: 1334

Jaysit · Member Joined: 19 Dec 2006 Posts: 4346

XBValk · Member Joined: 27 Jan 2007 Posts: 124 Location: NYC/COK

Well, many of those "grannies" are experienced. Much more so than some dollie on Kingfisher.

That having been said, its not the age of AI's flight attendants that's an issue. Indian women, in general, don't age badly, IFF they take care of themselves. The problem with some of AI's senior cabin staff is that (a) they haven't taken care of themselves; (b) they're sloppy and unkempt.

The younger cabin crew wrap their sarees gracefully, but some of the senior ones think they're at home - they tie their sarees below their protruding bellies (or worse, their undulating rolls of fat), then take the saree's palav and tuck it. As a result, they're waddling down the aisles showing off a large pot belly that would make the best bhaiyya making golgappas in Bengali market envious.[/quote]

I was mostly speaking of those that fly AI, but you are right about the Cabin Crew..

sri_bom · Member Joined: 22 Dec 2006 Posts: 2365 Location: Singapore

Quotes of the Day

Airbus: “We have had discussions with Air India and Jet Airways [regarding the A380]. Besides, the Managing Director of Air Deccan, Capt GR Gopinath showed an interest in operating the aircraft in India in an all-economy configuration. Capt Gopinath is convinced that Air Deccan can offer fares that are lower than what are charged by the Rajdhani Express trains if they operate the A380 aircraft”, John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer (Customers). Source: Hindu Business Line, 06-May-07.

Sri_Bom