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JET-SAHARA Deal Restruck
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tsk911
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 2:58 pm    Post subject: JET-SAHARA Deal Restruck Reply with quote

News flashing on NDTV andTimes NOW channel. Deal revalued Rs.1800-1850 Crores... Both the channels are showing figures with Rs.50 crores difference.
Moreover, Jet has to shell out Rs.1365-1375 crores to complete the deal.
Here's the link to CNN-IBN news:
http://www.ibnlive.com/news/business/04_2007/jet-to-buy-sahara-at-lower-price-38157.html

The CNN-IBN web link states the deal has been revalued between Rs.1400-Rs.1500 Crores.
Sahara has 10 Boeing 737-800s on order book and no longer has the B767-300. Now it's operated by Ocean Air. The pic here:
http://tinyurl.com/2xebaf
Pic courtesy: Stuart Haigh, Topjetpix :Airliners.net

JET chief Naresh Goyal told to Times NOW that no further reports will be made available before 4:30 PM IST.
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Aiel
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Surprised
Quite a surprise considering how the last deal ended.
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tsk911
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aiel wrote:
Surprised
Quite a surprise considering how the last deal ended.

I was shocked on seeing the news..... It was something unexpected....
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im seriously having doubts as to WHY is 9W still interested in S2?
Their primary goal was to get an access to US, they got it for their own airline.
Now wonder what will happen
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope NG sticks to his words this time.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the_380 wrote:
Im seriously having doubts as to WHY is 9W still interested in S2?
Their primary goal was to get an access to US, they got it for their own airline.
Now wonder what will happen



Well if they take over air sahara 9W's market dominance will be restored once again as in the current scenario IT is giving them a tough time .

Besides now they can really strengthen their indian network and probably may start additional flights to south east asia.

btw does that mean 9W will be able to fly guangzou in china ?
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
btw does that mean 9W will be able to fly guangzou in china ?

If the deal goes through then definately,
But then 9W also gets the heavy burden of debts that S2 has on its head
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If 9W can make its way to the US even with the accusations of terrorist links ... do you think this stuff would be a big deal?
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victor2alpha
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope this has nothing got to do with the top mgmt of 9W moving out. May be they knew it, and didnt really support it but well lets not get into speculations! Lets wait and watch what happens..

Rolling Eyes
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the_380
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

victor2alpha wrote:
I hope this has nothing got to do with the top mgmt of 9W moving out. May be they knew it, and didnt really support it but well lets not get into speculations! Lets wait and watch what happens..

Rolling Eyes

your reminding me of the movie 'Corporate' Confused

Quote:
If 9W can make its way to the US even with the accusations of terrorist links ... do you think this stuff would be a big deal?

I didn't understand with what reference you meant ? Can you please mind explaining it to me ?
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victor2alpha
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Jet Airways Inc, a registered airliner based in Bethesda, Maryland, put up a hurdle to Jet’s ambitious US foray by dragging an Al Qaeda, Dawood connection to the Indian private carrier. It wanted the Indian Jet to be barred from flying to US.

In a complaint filed to the US Department of Transport on May 23, the Delaware-based Jet said permitting Jet would endanger US national security as the Indian carrier “had Al Qaeda” links.


I guess he is referring to the above quote but oh well that was sorted out anyways eh! But not sure how this is related.. Smile

Hey btw, whats the 1st route for jet to US? BOM - BRU - EWR / BOM - PVG - SFO ? What routes are they planning..
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Quote:
If 9W can make its way to the US even with the accusations of terrorist links ... do you think this stuff would be a big deal?

I didn't understand with what reference you meant ? Can you please mind explaining it to me ?



See what I meant is 9W will sure come out of the debts of S2 if they takeover .... they must have some back up plans
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the_380
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
See what I meant is 9W will sure come out of the debts of S2 if they takeover .... they must have some back up plans

Ok in tht way...but as far as i can remember, last time when the deal waqs being finalised, news channels showed what would 9W gain and what would they have to face...
in that they mentioned S2 had no aircrafts of its own (the deal form 10x 738s were signed much after that), besides they get the heavy debt of S2 on their heads.
So what can be the back up plan for this except to pay the debts ?
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victor2alpha
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agree.. Debts and more debts.. BTW NTDV writes

Quote:
Jet Airways is also planning to raise $400 million in the international and is expected to use those proceeds for this buyout.


+

Quote:

"Jet-Sahara dispute is a big hurdle for raising money. Therefore, Jet is eager to settle dispute before raising money," added Kaul.


So its like, since they were skeptical about raising money due the S2 fallout, they are going to buy S2 and their debts + raise more money and get into more debts! l Embarassed Thats what it looks like..
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Nimish
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the_380 wrote:
Im seriously having doubts as to WHY is 9W still interested in S2?


There are so many obvious reasons for consolidation I wonder why you need to ask!

* They've now got it for Rs 4-8 billion less (depending on which news article you read).
* 9W might loose the current arbitration proceedings, and hence anyway loose about 1 billion (or whatever is stuck for arbitration). Remember this arbitration session is a final session, as I understand it there's no course for an appeal in case any party does not like the decision
* Given there's now talk about 9W/S2 being allowed to fly to Gulf - maybe 9W suddenly finds the S2 fleet/slots as being valuable, and also to minimize competition on the Gulf sector.
* Access to "Critical" slots at busy airports (remember how airlines had requests for new slots turned down)
* Access to ground infrastructure
* Access to an alternate route network
* Possibility of reducing capacity slightly to increase yields (reducing capacity by moving to intl market?)
* etc. etc.

These are just off the top of my head, I'm sure Naresh Goyal and his team have many more (and much better quality) reasons than this.
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the_380
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The biggest problem for 9W is that whether they accept the deal or not, they lose money.
So better pay more and get some more pilots/Mx etc....
But 9W will compromise on the price and reduce it and then buy. Else IT definately has his eyes.
I can remember Mallya announcing S2 not worth more than 750 crores INR the last time.
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VABBy
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well if the deal goes thru i guess the real winner is Sahara Pariwar who get away with kool amout of money in such a capital intensive business..

Bt yeah i guess if this consolidation happens KF shud be allowed to go international.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

VABBy wrote:
Well if the deal goes thru i guess the real winner is Sahara Pariwar who get away with kool amout of money in such a capital intensive business..


I'm guessing they won't make any money on this deal, just get away without needing to repay all the debts they've taken to keep the company running. I'm assuming 9W's price is not all cash, but takes into account the debt S2 has currently run up.
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blrsea
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nimish wrote:
the_380 wrote:
Im seriously having doubts as to WHY is 9W still interested in S2?


* Access to "Critical" slots at busy airports (remember how airlines had requests for new slots turned down)


I am not sure the above point will hold good. I remember PP saying that all slots and airport parking etc which are shared among multiple airlines won't go over to the airline taking over another. 9W might lose some slots at airports. But of course, if the allegations that PP is a 9W minister is true, they might not lose anything Surprised
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[

Hey btw, whats the 1st route for jet to US? BOM - BRU - EWR / BOM - PVG - SFO ? What routes are they planning..[/quote]

It is all given on Jet's website: www.jetairways.com
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So let me make a prediction here - this deal is the fore-runner to Jet Airway's low-cost carrier coming rapidly to an airport near you. And presenting, in all-economy configuration:-

2 x 737/800 already with 9W
? x 737/800 in quick change configuration
All ATRs and CRJs.
? x 737/various already with Air Sahara already in economy
And
The 737/400 already with 9W and going long in the tooth.

+++

That leaves Jet Airways with around 40-50 aircraft, mostly new, in 2-3 class configurations.

+++

Next stop - cargo!! How did we forget?

+++

This should be good. The interiors of most of the Air Sahara aircraft were in real need of some "Jetification".
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It might also mean the end of the 'tooth paste " livery of Sahara. Very Happy
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the_380
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I'm guessing they won't make any money on this deal, just get away without needing to repay all the debts they've taken to keep the company running. I'm assuming 9W's price is not all cash, but takes into account the debt S2 has currently run up.

Nimish you have a good point there. There's a strong possibility to that.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does Jet have the people or is it taking the people from S2 also Very Happy
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

blrsea wrote:
I am not sure the above point will hold good. I remember PP saying that all slots and airport parking etc which are shared among multiple airlines won't go over to the airline taking over another.


I do not remember that policy, I thought the airline taking over got all the assets and liabilities? Does anyone know for sure?
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From A.net:


Cricket wrote:
The latest I have heard is that Jet will pay only Rs 1450 crore, which is Rs 750 crore less than before. The payments are scheduled to be Rs 500 crore already made, plus Rs 400 crore to be paid on signing. Remaining Rs 550 crore to paid over four interest-free tranches over four years.
Sweet deal for 9W if you ask me.


Yes - completely agreed - S2 was probably getting too long in the tooth here so they agreed to this significantly lower valuation!
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tsk911
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But all B737's of S2 are on lease... so one day or the other, they will be returned... Even S2's goodwill is not that good....
Still the deal is OVER-valued.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 9:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tsk911 wrote:
Still the deal is OVER-valued.


So in your opinion - what would be a good value for S2? How would you value their assets like slots, ground handling equipment, customer base etc.?
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tsk911
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nimish wrote:
tsk911 wrote:
Still the deal is OVER-valued.


So in your opinion - what would be a good value for S2? How would you value their assets like slots, ground handling equipment, customer base etc.?

Hey I think you must be aware of the fact that all their Boeings are leased.
Secondly, they don't have the same market standing which they used to have. So, Goodwill (in accounting terms) is not the same as earlier days. It has depreciated.
Thirdly, it's still not sure whether the slots and bays will be made available to 9W...
Fourthly, the work culture of both the airlines is different. Jet is more of a corporate kind, whereas Sahara is quite traditional, the Parivaar concept... Therefore, Jet's employees are ought to be more competent as they are subjected to a true corporate concept.
Fifthly, orientation and training of S2's employees will be costly due to changes in working environment...

Now, you tell me will you strike a deal full of problems, uncertanties??? Which also involves huge Post-acquisition cost??????
And in words of Vijay Mallya, S2 is worth Rs.750 crores... He's a known entrepreneur and he must have got the valuation done taking all aspects into consideration...
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jet's main aim is to increase the shares the hold over the avaition sector which was rapidly decreasing after the arrival of 6 new airlines so where it had 40% earlier when the deal was first struck 1 yr 3 mths ago but now it has decreased so the best way is of buying another airlines and no other big airlines is in the mood of selling their company but when it has got S2 and they r gettin a rebate of 400 crores then y will they leave it.Any other ambitious person would hve done the same Naresh Goyale is doing Very Happy
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dipanjan Mallik wrote:
Jet's main aim is to increase the shares the hold over the avaition sector which was rapidly decreasing after the arrival of 6 new airlines so where it had 40% earlier when the deal was first struck 1 yr 3 mths ago but now it has decreased so the best way is of buying another airlines and no other big airlines is in the mood of selling their company but when it has got S2 and they r gettin a rebate of 400 crores then y will they leave it.Any other ambitious person would hve done the same Naresh Goyale is doing Very Happy

Ambition aims high... but the same can come crashing down... Lets see... The Position and Income Statement of the POST-acquisition period will answer all our queries...
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Evening Edition of Your Stocls on CNBC
Experts say 9W stocks not worth buying. Besides tomorrow markets might end up in the red.
Different channels reporting different amounts. NDTV Profit says 1800 crore, CNBC says 1450 crores.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 12:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now with a merger 9W should be able to offer more domestic Connection and expand to more Internationally.. Hopefully they’ll be able to put up a fight against Air India(n)
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where does S2 stand after being hoodwinked down the alley of M & A. They have always been squandering hence they offered themselves for SALE. And of all the airlines the one and only other pvt operator bids in at a ridiculous price to scuttle others and S2. The very fact that 9W was allowed to take over S2 without the possibility of other being given the approval to fly intl is anti-competitive and blatantly biased in favour of 9W. There is no doubt that 9W will renew its offer to buy S2 albeit at a lower price rather that lose the $500m(or less) in the escrow acct.
The above statement is from my post on Mar 13 on the thread ''9W to operate AMD-LHR..''

The fundemantal question is How does this merger affect the future growth of aviation in India ? There is no doubt in my mind that 9W will try to thwart all competition to KEEP THE CAKE (Intl).......... Thats if this whole merger goes thru, i've my doubts if NG can pull this one off. Last weeks exodus of 9W exec might have been a pre-cursor to the offer to buy S2. I am sure the veteran execs would have realised that the ''Witches are arriving too late to save the drowning ship/s ''.
There is absolutely no synergy between the 2 cos today. S2 has huge burden on its fleet of leased aircrafts, these have to be returned in the same condition as recieved (Infact last time, NG had highlighted the leased aircraft maint status as one of the reasons for pulling out). S2 crew have deserted in large numbers. There are marginal advantages in DEL and BOM with regards to check-in desks but thats ltd to DOM ops which is already saturated. 9W will undoubtedly use the additional capacity to operate gulf using its own metal and S2 on dom however the tired S2 eqpt will erode 9W brand in the dom sector. The other gains to 9W could be in the form of the 10 B738 on order by S2, its impossible to get delivery slots for 2008 but then it all depends on how the EU-USA O S affect airlines in EU. A marginal negative effect could place huge numbers of aircrafts on the leasing market suppressing rentals and eroding this advt that 9W might have not to mention the bloody IRAN conflict and possible $100/brl of OIL.
Either ways if NG pulls this one or sinks with it, this whole episode is bad news for Indian aviation, The way NG is allowed to write the rule book to his advantage. If this had been in EU, Kingfisher would have been allowed another go at S2 because now NG is effing buying at the price offered by VM for S2 or irrespective of the outcome of this whole bloody arbitration other operators would have been allowed to fly Intl with immediate effect.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why is everyone making a big deal about these leased aircraft?

Jet Airways should be able to bring them up to their standards. Repaint them and refurbish the interiors. Who are they leased from anyway, a leasing company or another airline? Either way they will have to repaint them and they could always put the Sahara interior back in when they return them. Then again they could also just renew the lease if possible.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Intersting. Very interesting. I think this time the deal for 9W is better than the last time because it does open up slots and routes for them. Also reduces competition to South East Asia. And 9W gets all the South East Asia flights of S2.

Reduces competition in domestic sector. I think this move might be beneficial to both IT and 9W because the exodus of S2 might allow them to rationalise the pricing a bit as S2 was offering full service at LCC rates.

Well I guess time will tell.

victor2alpha wrote:

Hey btw, whats the 1st route for jet to US? BOM - BRU - EWR / BOM - PVG - SFO ? What routes are they planning..


BOM-BRU-EWR scheduled to start mid august but may be preponed.

Cheers.

PS - Prepone is now in the Oxford English Dictionay courtesy desis.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tayaramecanici wrote:
Either ways if NG pulls this one or sinks with it, this whole episode is bad news for Indian aviation, The way NG is allowed to write the rule book to his advantage. If this had been in EU, Kingfisher would have been allowed another go at S2 because now NG is effing buying at the price offered by VM for S2 or irrespective of the outcome of this whole bloody arbitration other operators would have been allowed to fly Intl with immediate effect.


Sorry - I fail to see the logic here.

How is this bad news for Indian aviation? Haven't we all agreed that consolidation is much needed, and what is this if not consolidation?

The way NG is allowed to write the rule book to his advantage This is the one that has me most confused. I thought the MoCA and DGCA made the M&A rules and framework very clear last year and I don't see where NG is bending the rule book in this case. Won't the same rules be applied to AI/IC as to 9W/S2?

If EU, Kingfisher would have been allowed another go at S2 Another statement that has me confused. At last count Mallya was willing to pay only 750 Crores for S2, while Goyal is paying 2-2.5 times that amount. Why would this be anything other than a commercial decision for S2 - and how does the EU come into this?
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What aboout the strategy of Jet this time? Are they going to implement the same thing that they had decided last time or are they going to rework everything agaiin from starting?

I mean they had decided to rename Sahara TRANSJET. Are they still going to implement that or start fresh?

Cheers
Shivendra
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finally it seems its Sahara shri who had the last laugh with S2 being sold for 1950 crores with jst a 50 crore discount. ALL Liabilties to remain with Jet and bad for pax like us for whom its the end of the era of fares which were comparable to LCC carriers but provided by full service airlines.

Jet resurrects Sahara buy at $50m discount

Cornered by legal compulsions that would have extracted a tough price, Jet Airways, India’s largest airline by marketshare, has decided to go ahead with the deal to buy out Air Sahara.

The rapprochement comes in the middle of acrimonious arbitration proceedings, after Jet Airways walked out of an agreement to acquire Sahara in June last year. The transaction will now be completed in accordance with the original share purchase agreement, except for a $50m discount in the enterprise value, sources close to the deal said. After accounting for earlier payments and debt, Jet will now pay about Rs 950 crore for Air Sahara. Of this, about Rs 400 crore will be made in cash immediately and the remaining will be paid in four instalments, sources said.

The valuation is being seen as `way too high’ by analysts, but the deal marks the end of nine months of uncertainty on the issue. Jet Airways shares ended flat Rs 644.85 on Tuesday after rising initially.

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Nimish
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From HT.com

Quote:
Air Sahara has made more money from the dispute rather than running the airline.

The Lucknow-based airline is learned to have earned close to Rs 81 crore in the form of interest that it received from Rs 1,500 crore deposited in the Escrow account by Jet Airways over the last nine months. Apart from this it has been getting interest income from Rs 500 crore that was paid in advance to Subroto Roy as part of the deal against 100 per cent equity of the airline. According to insiders the airline has been getting Rs 7 lakh per day as interest from this advance and this works out to be nearly Rs 18 crore for nine months since the dispute broke out.

So put together Air Sahara has earned close to Rs 100 crore from this head alone.

An Air Sahara official told HT that they need Rs 17 to 18 crore a month to run the operations and considering the interest income they in fact made more money rather than losing. "Any way there was revenue from passenger and cargo service. And the interest income took care of bulk of our expenses."

While referring the matter to arbitration, the Bombay High Court in its September 22 judgment said the Jet Airways can withdraw the money deposited in the escrow account while, the interest accrued will go to Air Sahara.

Jet lawyers had submitted before the court that the company was losing Rs 22 lakh per day on interest against the money deposited at the escrow account opened with ICICI Bank Nariman Point.
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